Duncan Riley> Despite knowing better, and last years predications featuring linked from Metafilter last week (they were close on a number of accounts), here are the “Blog Herald predictions for 2005”.
1. Yahoo will enter blogging. I know we predicted this last year, but with the competition (MSN, Google and even Lycos) using blogging as a tool to bring in and keep web surfers, Yahoo will be forced to join. Whether through acquisition (Yahoo! TypePad sounds interesting) or greenfields release, Yahoo will join the blogosphere.
2. 2005 will be deemed “The Year of the Blog” After 2003 and 2004 were both deemed the “Year of the Blog” I’m going for third time lucky this year. At least 10 media outlets will make the announcement, and the word “blog” will be discovered by an additional old-world dictionary group, who will go on to make a lot of noise about listing the word in its paper pages.
3. SixApart will be bought Yes, this was predicted last year, but if the 1 million user figure reported recently for the companies suite of products is correct, its ripe for purchase, independents only remain independent on small numbers. Who will buy it? Time will tell, but what is sure that the company will not repeat it disastrous licensing stuff up this year, having learned from its mistakes, even if the Blog Herald remains persona non grata to Mrs Trott and friends.
4. Scam blogs will test blogging credibility Having survived the jokes which were the fake celebrity blogs in 2004, spammers, criminals and others will establish a number of scam blogs and blogging services (which they may already be doing) that will cause a threat to the credibility to the blogosphere. Paranoid? maybe, but the actions of a few will continue to reflect the whole of the blogosphere as a number of type-writer hugging journalists seek their revenge on bloggers for the annus horiblis that was big media in 04.
5. Blog advertising will boom Look for new blog-specific advertising firms to compete with the likes of Blogads.com. Blog advertising will move away from reliance in politics to a broad spectrum of product offerings utilising the wonder that is the diversity of the medium itself
6. The better blogs will be purchased It already happened in 2004, and the trend will continue in 2005. Don’t expect thousands, but expect double figures for direct purchases of blogs by media conglomerates and internet companies. Why start a new blog and build traffic when you can buy an established one
7. Other will pool their resources. Jason McCabe Calacanis is on to something with his network of blogs. Expect copy-cat like enterprises emerging throughout 2005. There will be new companies that will compete for the corporate advertising dollar with new networks of targeted blogs. What may well emerge is bloggers pooling their blogs, time and intellectual work in a communal model of blogging network, leveraging their combined power and traffic to deliver appealing advertising packages to big media and marketing firms alike. They won’t be signing “kombaya my lord” but more tunes along the lines of “money, money, money” in a form of 21st century hippy capitalism
8. The Blog Herald will retain it current design all year, we promise….
9. Blogs will do television Sometime during 2005 bloggers will get their own television show on blogging. It won’t win awards, but expect it to be highly visible on bittorrent networks.
10. The Association will be formed The continued proliferation of blogging awards, ethics debates, and lack of united voice will see the formation of a Blogging Association that will attempt to represent bloggers regardless of political persuasion. (well perhaps this is more wishful thinking as opposed to prediction, but you never know!)
Happy new year!.