Fred Wilson has an interesting post about Youtube’s potential revenue. He focuses on the possibilities of a 10 second ad before showing any of the videos, and his maths add up to a possible net revenue of $150 million a year for the video site. How Youtube would love that.
Jason Calacanis disagrees. He says $20 million and points at some interesting factors, such as Youtube’s varied content will only generate shitty CPM’s and so on. It’s also an interesting post.
It’s all very interesting to hear what people in the industry thinks of Youtube and their potential. Some have great beliefs for the site (Wilson) while others shy away from it because of the potential dangers (Calacanis). It’ll certainly be fun to look back at all these theories and thoughts on Youtube when we know for sure if it’ll be a huge success or crash and burn in lawsuits forever.
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Youtube is a fad. All the kids are currently listening to the Asian kid play a wicked version of Pachelbel’s Canon. Soon the wave will pass and something new will come along. Remember Napster? Here today, gone tomorrow.
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Well, we’ll just see about that. Even a hype driven product can maintain both dignity and visitors when the hype has passed.
Your comparison to Napster is somewhat off the mark in my opinion. At least until Youtube gets sued to pieces, then maybe it’ll work.
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Youtube is useful. As a tool! it needs to find a way to provide ads that benifit it’s users..then it will fly!
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Calacanis will disagree untill he launches his own version of YouTube