When will blogging growth peak?
Duncan Riley> An interesting question put by Jeremy Zawodny on his blog asking When will blogging growth peak? He suggests that blogging is starting to mature and compares the current state of blogging to online shopping in 2000/2001, but doesn’t actually suggest an answer. The comments though both on his blog, and at ThreadWatch on the same topic (where I picked this up) vary.
The whole argument in relation to blog-bubbles and when will it all end goes back years, and yet the amazing growth has continued. In my humble opinion, there’s still plenty of growth in the blogosphere to go, particularly considered that most polls find that the majority of Americans still don’t even know what a blog is. This said though, the main growth will no longer be in the United States. Blog growth is going to driven out of countries in which blogging has yet to take off, or is about to take off. China and India come to mind. China is already booming with around 5 million blogs and massive growth in the last 6 months, India is still relatively a minnow in the blogosphere but has huge potential. Certain countries in Europe still haven’t caught the blogging bug where as others have (compare France and Poland to other European countries for example). So basically there is plenty of steam left in the blogging engine. It will get to a stage, one day, where the growth stops, every market is finite, but we are definitely still not there yet.
It depends on whether it’s become a general activity, like internet usage, or a specific one, like the use of a product. I think it may turn out to be the former. Like email, we may find growing restrictions placed on blogging to curb its runaway success.